Welcome ! I'm a High Civil Servant specialized in Economics and Statistics, a Engineer in Statistics, Economics and Data Science and a PhD student in Economics at the Paris School of Economics.

My research focuses on macroeconomic forecasting, particularly on sequential prediction methods with applications to financial stability. As a senior civil servant at the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), I currently work in the National Accounts Department as a research methodologist. My work covers a range of topics, including the measurement of public service output in volume terms, profit shifting, and crypto-asset statistics. In my previous experiences, I also developed a strong interest in quantitative sociology.

Curriculum Vitae  ·  jeremy.fouliard@insee.fr  ·  jeremy.fouliard@psemail.eu  ·  GitHub

Working Papers

• Answering the Queen: Machine Learning and Financial Crises — with Michael Howell (CbC), Hélène Rey (LBS), and Vania Stavrakeva (LBS)
  NBER Working Paper n° 10.3386/w28302, 2020
  Coverage: NBER · CEPR · BIS
  Abstract

  Financial crises cause economic, social and political havoc. Macroprudential policies are gaining traction but are still severely under-researched compared to monetary and fiscal policy. We use the general framework of sequential predictions, also called online machine learning, to forecast crises out-of-sample. Our methodology is based on model aggregation and is "meta-statistical", since we can incorporate any predictive model of crises in our analysis and test its ability to add information, without making any assumption on the data generating process. We predict systemic financial crises twelve quarters ahead out-of-sample with high signal-to-noise ratio. Our approach guarantees that picking certain time dependent sets of weights will be asymptotically similar for out-of-sample forecasts to the best ex post combination of models; it also guarantees that we outperform any individual forecasting model asymptotically. We analyse which models provide the most information for our predictions at each point in time and for each country, allowing us to gain some insights into economic mechanisms underlying the building of risk in economies.

• Is this Time Different? Financial Follies across Centuries — with Hélène Rey (LBS) and Vania Stavrakeva (LBS)
  Working paper
  Abstract

  Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff write that "no matter how different the latest financial frenzy or crisis always appears, there are usually remarkable similarities with past experience from other countries and from history". Can we really use the same models to predict the 20th century Great Depression and the 21st century Great Recession? We find that we can predict out-of-sample the 1929 Great Depression and all the 20th and 21st century systemic financial crises in a panel of countries. We also generally do not over predict crises during the Bretton Woods period.

• Predictable Returns. Evidence from French Stock Market History (1845–2024) — J. Fouliard
  Working paper
  Abstract

  Whether stock returns are predictable remains one of the most contested questions in financial economics. Exploiting a novel hand-collected dataset spanning nearly two centuries of French stock market history (1845–2024), this paper provides a comprehensive empirical examination of return predictability through three interconnected hypotheses. First, the signal-to-noise ratio of any predictive model is inherently low, rendering robust out-of-sample forecasting economically marginal in aggregate. Second, pockets of predictability nonetheless exist but are concentrated in specific market segments and distinct historical episodes. Third, such pockets are increasingly transient, eroding as financial markets undergo structural transformation — notably the rise of algorithmic trading and digitalization. Together, these findings shed new light on the longstanding tension between market efficiency and the episodic predictability documented in prior literature, informing the ongoing debate on the boundaries of return forecastability.

• Volume Measures for Non-Market Education Output — with M. Le Floch (INSEE) and P. Mendras (INSEE)
  Document de travail INSEE, 2026 (forthcoming)
  Coverage: JMS · UNECE
  Abstract

  Measuring the volume of public services output is a fundamental challenge for national accounts, due to the absence of market prices. In France, the volume of non-market education is measured using an output approach based on student enrollment. As this indicator mainly reflects demographic trends, the recent decline in the number of students mechanically reduces the estimated volume of education, even if quality teaching could have improved, for example through smaller class sizes. This study compares alternative volume measurements, and examines different quality adjustments to capture other features of the service provided. It introduces a theoretical framework that incorporates quality adjustments into output volume measures based on the contribution of quality to human capital, drawing on estimates consistent with the existing literature. Between 2013 and 2022, the adjustment based on PISA scores lowers annual growth rates (−0.056 percentage points on average) while the class-size adjustment slightly raises annual growth (+0.015 percentage points on average). Overall, quality adjustments have a modest effect on the estimated volume of education output, but moderate effects could accumulate over time and result in visible change in trend.

Other Publications — Sociology

• L'exclusion sociale est-elle réductible à la situation d'assistance ? — with Éléonore Richard (DREES)
  Revue française de sociologie, 2023/3, vol. 64
  Abstract

  This article aims to quantify the relative significance of various determinants of the feeling of exclusion identified in the literature. Drawing on data from the 2018 "Statistics on Resources and Living Conditions" survey conducted by INSEE, it demonstrates that social assistance has no additional or intensifying effect on feelings of exclusion once controlling for factors such as labor market detachment, country of birth, material poverty, and geographical isolation.

• L'exclusion sociale. Reconstruire les communs , 2022, Bréal.
  Abstract

  Anti-racist movements, feminist movements, or the Yellow Vests movement: contemporary political struggles express the widespread feeling of social exclusion. This book seeks to redefine and account for the emergence of social exclusion, laying the first foundations for a political renewal against nationalist and neoliberal projects.

• L'exclusion sociale , 2017, Bréal.
  Abstract

  The notion of social exclusion now occupies a fundamental place worldwide, as both a focus of public policies and activist struggles. Drawing on Castel, Simmel, and Paugam, as well as fields ranging from the microeconomics of discrimination to the history of exclusion practices, this book examines the concept while serving as an introduction to the social sciences.